Regardless of what you think, ‘IRREGARDLESS’ is now a real word, as of last week. Quite pertinently, markets too have shrugged off Fitch’s Rating outlook downgrades for India — markets are up 10% from then and the INR has been the best performing currency since then. Also, there seems to be a new sheriff in town — with retail investors (speculators?) flooding the market and throwing carefully calibrated buy-side models by the wayside. The retail broking industry has done well in India, as in most place. The pearls and perils of WFH…
Some other companies have done even better, Novavax — a biotech play — was valued at $93m in Jan is now trading at a market cap of $4.1bn. Zoom, Netflix, Amazon are the obvious ones, but a less obvious and closer to home name is that of Alok Industries, which was acquired out of bankruptcy by RIL and now repurposed to make PPE for medical workers. It pays to be in the right industry at the right time.
One came across multiple contrasting themes; migrant labour chartered on special flights from rural to urban India given the labour demand contrasting with the chartering of overseas Infosys employees back to India given perhaps a lack of demand & non-renewals of visas. Massive job cuts in the IT sector but retail bank lending remains strong. Wage de-growth in urban India contrasting with rising retail volumes in markets. Also, Kanye West is running for President of the United States. Welcome to a post-interval 2020.
Like Ben Graham said, markets vote but do not weigh; and going by the daily market turnovers — $9bn on Thursday — the vote is firmly to roll the dice in the hopes hit a seven.
IRREGARDLESS of any and all sobriety given near term macro views and fundamentals.