Watch What They Do, not What they say!

US Elections, held earlier this week, were expectedly unexpected. The pundits, who predicted blue and red waves, got themselves in a knot. There was neither. Urban America projected their fears and concerns about the incumbent onto the broader society. They presumed people will overwhelmingly vote for the “right candidate”, whatever that means. If there was a lesson from the press coverage of the 2016 US elections (as was with the 2014 and 2019 Indian General Elections) is that opinion polls and exit polls count for nothing.

There is no incentive for people to tell anyone else what they are really thinking and what they will be doing. If one wants to learn about people, then it’s critical to watch what people do and not what they say. Before the election date, much has been written on the silent voter. She may not make her views public, perhaps even agree with people with contrarian views to be ‘polite’ socially. But in the privacy of the voting booth that sits with her truth that may be very different from yours or India Etc.’s, but is ‘A Truth’ nonetheless. Better watch what they do, rather than what they say…

It’s over 48 hours since voting closed in the US and the ‘free world’ is none the closer to knowing its ‘leader’ will be for the next 1460 days. A litigated road to the White House seems par for the course. But markets don’t care. This liquidity led Bull Run will justify its run-up irrespective of who comes to power. It is even finding silver linings, in the gray skies of ‘electoral litigation’ from here on.

Read this excellent article that empathizes one with the emotional roller-coaster on election night, for traders to identify the Carl Ichan Trade of 2020.

Meanwhile, PM Modi had rolled out the ‘virtual’ red-carpet for the 20 largest funds at a “Global Investor Roundtable” earlier this week. The virtual summit was attended by the world’s largest pension and sovereign wealth funds, who have around $6TN in AUM. The Prime Minister’s pitch to the investors was that ‘India is the place to be’ and offers democracy, demand, demographics, and diversity’ and can become a ‘global manufacturing powerhouse’.